Have we found the “bottom”? The next three months may tell as we enter the 4th quarter of 2010. The national indicators appear to forcast a slow recovery. Generally about 20% of the years business is done in the 4th quarter so it is a slower time of the year for residential sales as homeowner’s “bed down” for the winter months.

The mortage rates remain at near historical lows as the national average today is 4.32% on a 30 year, which is another reason for decreased sales. Home sales decrease when such large numbers of homeowners are refinancing their existing mortgages, because after refinancing, they ususally don’t move for several more years so it takes them off the market.

The inventory remains high as 3,372 homes are currently on the market in the Metro Jackson area (Hinds,Rankin,Madison). Currently we have an average of 394 closings a month that equals an 8.6 months of supply, therefore we are in a buyers market. The seller may have to sell for less than a few years ago, however they will most likely buy their next home for less also, so it’s somewhat relative.
Low rates, lots of inventory, low prices,… GO BUY A HOUSE TODAY!

Home sales picked up in the spring when the government was offering tax credits. But the market has struggled since the tax credits expired on April 30.

It would take 12.5 months to sell off the 4 million unsold homes on the market at the current sales pace. The median sale price was $182,600, up 0.7 percent from a year ago.

On the NATIONAL scene… Existing home sales marked the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year increase in June. On a monthly basis, sales activity eased 5.1% from May. The moderation in home sales reflects “understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits,” according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. He anticipates such impact to show up in the next two months.

In Madison and Rankin Counties the average sells price for July was $207,917 , and the median sold price was $178,500. For 2009 it was $189,910 average and $162,000 median. So the average sold price, and sold median price is up. We are selling an average of 370 homes a month so far this year vs. last year’s average of 387 a month.

BUYERS…the interest rates are at 50 year lows..the inventory is abundant and priced right…JUST BUY IT!

Some of the Tax Credit contract which “had to be written by April 30th” will close in May and June so the trickle effect will add to those two months numbers. The Parade of Homes was held the last two weekends and for the most part potential buyers turned out in fair numbers.

Interest Rates remain at near 50 year lows…this is an incrediable time to buy with inventory in abundance, interest rates great and prices stabalizing and showing signs of growth. FEED A REALTOR~BUY A HOUSE!

My expectations were to see modest increases in 2010 compared to same month sales in 2009. And it is still my hope. We have a Tax credit that last until contracts in place by an April 30 deadline and that may work, it worked in the fall to stimulate business somewhat.

Most of the sales were below $275K which means that FHA financing would be the bulk of the buyer’s choice.  Business over $400K is stagnant.  Again, the inventory is great and seasonally growing and the interest rates are good so value abounds!

For the Year ending Dec. 31, 2009 Hinds, Rankin, and Madison Counties ended up with 4615 homes closed vs. 2008′s 5519 which is a 16% Decrease. Yuk! The only months with an increase were July and November. Compared to 2007?… do you really want to know?.. A  26% decrease. Let’s not go there.

OK..let’s move forward. For 2010 we hopefully are around the horn so to say. We will be going against those low figures from 2009 and maybe have some small increases. Even if they are very small that would be better than 2008. 

What is the key for an increase? Economist say jobs. Interest rates are good. Inventory is ample. Values abound. The buyers are in the drivers seat as it is a buyers market in most places.  It is all about finding buyers. Buyers who have  jobs, credit, and a down payment.  As I heard one agent say, “having a good buyer is better than having five listings.” Do you know someone with a new job, got a promotion, had a new baby, or who just got married, divorced or became a widow. Please call me with there contact information they could be in the market for a new home. Man, I hope they have good credit and some down-payment money! There are certainly some values in the marketplace.

This year peaked in June with 519 closing compared to the year to date monthly average. The reason for the increase sales? The Tax Credit is the main factor, however it is set to expire in November unless Congress  extends it. The majority of homes sold is below $272,000, the maximum amount of a FHA loan. And first time homebuyers stimulated by the Tax Credit are estimated to be at least 50% of the sales year to date.

What we’re looking for is some stability in a very lean market. If the Tax Credit is extended or expanded, which is in the works,  we could see more action or continued action vs  the normal fall/winter decrease but unlikely to be more than 2008 fall/winter closings.

A turn around in 2010? Not likely in a major way.  As the supply of new homes continues to decline- it is expected  the demand will show modest  improvement as we gradually come out of the recession.  And let’s hope the interest rates for mortgages remain low.

PRIOR MONTH: September 2009 vs August 2009 was a 18% decrease. This year peaked in June with 519 closing compared to the year to date monthly average of  293. We may see an increase in October closings as the Tax Credit sales get under the deadline wire of November 30.

The rest of the year? I do not expect to see any upward trend as the market normally decreases activity in October throught December. If we could keep the average monthly closing around 275-300 that would indicate some stability in a very lean market.   If the Tax Credit is extended or expanded we could see more action or continued action vs  the normal fall/winter decrease but unlikely to be more than 2008 fall/winter closings.

2010? No miracles. If your a Seller, pricing right is everything. If your a Buyer don’t wait for the bottom the interest rates and current prices are too good. Buy today!

The month of September ends Today..give me about three days afterward for the MLS sales to get posted by the local agents and I’ll give you a complete breakdown of the TREND Year to Date and the results for September compared to August and to 2008.

It doesn’t look very good at this point but maybe we’ll see a last minute surprise. I Hope it’s good news!! Stay tuned…..